TRADE LIBERALISATION AND FISCAL RISKS: INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT MECHANISMS AND LESSONS FOR UZBEKISTAN
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trade liberalisation, fiscal risks, budget sustainability, WTO accession, fiscal risk management, UzbekistanAbstrak
This thesis examines the nature, typology, and management mechanisms of fiscal risks arising in the context of trade liberalisation, with particular reference to countries that have acceded to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Drawing on the comparative experience of Georgia, Chile, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan, the study identifies and analyses four principal categories of fiscal risk — revenue, structural, cyclical, and institutional — and evaluates the international instruments deployed to manage them. On the basis of this comparative analysis, targeted fiscal policy recommendations are derived for Uzbekistan as it advances its WTO accession process. The findings indicate that proactive fiscal risk management — combining budgetary rules, stabilisation funds, and sequenced tax reform — can substantially mitigate the adverse budgetary consequences of trade liberalisation when these instruments are applied in a coordinated and mutually reinforcing manner.
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