THE LIMITS OF GOOD-NEIGHBORLINESS: TRADE INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURAL FRICTION IN POST- 2017 CENTRAL ASIA

Abstract

Since 2017, Central Asia has changed how its countries deal with each other. This is the biggest shift in the region since independence. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's reforms in Uzbekistan opened borders, restarted stalled talks, and led to a yearly meeting of Central Asian leaders. Reported trade between the countries has grown sharply since then. But this friendly diplomacy has not solved the older problems that have limited regional trade since the Soviet collapse. These problems include: countries belonging to different trade blocs (the Eurasian Economic Union, the World Trade Organization, and the Commonwealth of Independent States free-trade area), many non-tariff barriers, slow and unpredictable border crossings, a shared water-and-energy system that causes conflict, and transport routes built to link the region to outside markets rather than to each other. This article reviews trade, policy, and institutional information published between 2017 and 2026 to see how much political friendliness has actually turned into real structural integration. It argues that Central Asia's trade growth since 2017 is real, but shallow. It depends heavily on diplomatic goodwill and one-on-one deals, not on shared rules, connected infrastructure, or solved resource disputes — all of which lasting integration requires. These findings matter for policymakers, international financial institutions, and researchers who study regionalism.