CITIZEN PARTICIPATION IN PARTICIPATORY BUDGETING IN UZBEKISTAN: ASSESSMENT, DETERMINANTS, AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Abstrak

This article examines citizen participation in Uzbekistan's participatory budgeting (PB) mechanism — the "Open Budget" initiative — from its pilot launch in 2019 through 2025. The study pursues three objectives: (1) to systematize the theoretical foundations and international models of PB and assess their applicability to Uzbekistan; (2) to conduct a multi-factor regression analysis identifying the key determinants of regional participation rates; and (3) to develop evidence-based policy recommendations for strengthening citizen engagement. Drawing on official portal statistics, national statistics, and international benchmarks, the analysis employs pooled OLS, fixed-effects, and random-effects panel models across 14 regional units. The findings indicate that digital infrastructure, local fiscal capacity, and institutional experience are the strongest predictors of participation, while distance to administrative centers has a negative effect. The 2024 adoption of a "one citizen — one vote" rule represents a qualitative shift in measurement reliability. The article proposes five priority policy measures, including open data publication, differentiated regional strategies, and integrated project monitoring systems.